Green Bay, WI hosts the first of WFTDA's re-branded regionals for 2010, now called the North Central Region Playoffs, in what will undoubtedly be the tightest region from top to bottom, only 23 spots separate Detroit (#8, 7-2) from Omaha (#31, 5-2). This is especially interesting because it is the first time in the last couple years that the top seed, Windy City (#14, 3-3), has looked vulnerable. Their three losses were all Top 5 teams but what is more scary is the low margins of victory, only beating Boston (#18, 4-7) by 6 and Madison (#20, 1-7) by 11. Detroit, on the other hand, is looking ready for a deep run, after solid wins over Steel City (#6, 9-3), Kansas City (#17, 5-4), and Madison and their only losses coming to Philly (#5, 10-3).
Despite an interesting competition for the three spots for nationals, the battle for 5th place may be even more interesting with the last six seeds being ranked within nine spots of one another. What makes it even tougher to nail down the victor from this group is that there have only been three games amongst these teams in 2010. Brewcity (#24, 7-2) beat North Star (#28, 4-3) 148-68, Brewcity also beat Arch Rival (#22, 4-9) 120-65, and North Star beat Arch Rival as well, 80-75 at home in August. Brewcity could be considered the favorite based on those two games but big losses to Top 10 teams has hurt their ranking.
1: Windy City Rollers (#14, 3-3)
2: Detroit Derby Girls (#8, 7-2)
3: Mad Rollin' Dolls (#20, 1-7)
4: Cincinnati Rollergirls (#16, 8-2)
5: Brewcity Bruisers (#24, 7-2)
6: North Star Roller Girls (#28, 4-3)
7: Minnesota RollerGirls (#21, 4-1)
8: Arch Rival Rollergirls (#22, 4-9)
9: Naptown Roller Girls (#23, 8-3)
10: Omaha Rollergirls (#31, 5-2)
Champion: Detroit. It's finally the Motor City's time to shine. Detroit has been a solid team the last few years, always on the cusp of making a breakthrough. Last year saw the D-Funk All-Stars lose narrowly in the semifinals to Madison but go on and win the 3rd place game to advance to nationals. That meant facing the giant, Gotham (#1, 7-0), in the first round so that didn't really go that well. In 2008, they were 11 points from nationals, losing a heartbreaker to Philly 102-92. 2007 saw Detroit make it to nationals but get booted hard in the first round as well, Rat City (#9, 6-5) did it this time, 160-50.
Ticket-punchers: Detroit, Windy City, Cincinnati. The Rollers from Chicago should have no trouble advancing to the WFTDA Championship for the fourth year in a row. There may be a tight race for the third spot, however. Cincinnati (#16, 8-2) had been a solid Top 10 team in the Derbytron rankings this season but back-to-back losses to Kansas City and Bay Area (#12, 5-5) have dropped the Black Sheep to #16 but that is still good for the third best position in the region. Their main rival is Madison who defeated Cincinnati in the 3rd place game last season. The Dairyland Dolls keep a high rank despite only winning one game this season. Madison has played an incredibly tough schedule this year and has kept it tight in many games against very highly ranked teams but has been unable to put more marks in the win column.
Team most likely to play above their seed: Cincinnati. The Black Sheep's first matchup with Brewcity is a rematch of a solid win by Cincinnati in June, 139-71. That should be no problem. In the semifinals, Cincy could win a tight one against Windy City as both teams are only seperated by a .008 rating. Even if they lose that one, however, the Black Sheep should take down Madison in the 3rd place game and advance to nationals for the first time.
Predicted finish:
1: Detroit
2: Windy City
3: Cincinnati
4: Madison
5: Minnesota
6: Arch Rival
7: Naptown
8: Brewcity
9: North Star
10: Omaha
9.09.2010
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Uh, maybe not.
ReplyDeleteI did say that this was the tightest tournament of them all which I do not have any doubt will end up being true.
ReplyDeleteI ALMOST picked Minnesota as my darkhorse and if I would've known about Sadistic Sadie's suspension at the time of writing, I would have picked them.
In reality, the only missed picks so far have been due to Minnesota playing better than expected and Arch Rival being ranked too high.
And frankly, there is no way in hell that anyone outside the state of Minnesota could have seen Minnesota's performance coming (although, the Derbytron did have them ranked higher than DNN, Flat Track Stats, and WFTDA and Madison was only rated .003 higher so that was ALMOST a correct prediction). But, I think everyone needs to give it up for Minnesota who figured something out in the last couple months. This is a completely different team than what started the year and has been an unbelievable tournament thus far.
It would be my supposition, Derbytron, that MN's position will change significantly in every stat-based ranking system as BOA stats continue to race into the past. Also, the SOS rating for them is going to jump like mad in November.
ReplyDeleteWould that follow your train of thought on this?