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11.08.2010

2010 Final Rankings - November 8

Team Rating 2010 Record Base Rating SOS Games Used 2010 Games
1 Gotham 0.782 12-1 0.739 0.585 18 13
2 Rocky Mountain 0.750 14-1 0.723 0.601 24 15
3 Oly +1 0.714 15-2 0.728 0.602 23 17
4 Texas -1 0.678 7-8 0.610 0.593 21 15
5 Denver +1 0.676 9-3 0.664 0.554 19 12
6 Philly -1 0.665 14-6 0.662 0.603 25 20
7 Charm City +1 0.662 9-8 0.552 0.593 22 17
8 Chicago +1 0.638 1-1 0.535 0.470 2 2
9 Rat City -2 0.638 9-6 0.571 0.595 20 15
10 Steel City 0.633 12-4 0.623 0.497 20 16
11 Bay Area +2 0.627 7-7 0.532 0.570 19 14
12 Rose City 0.624 9-6 0.568 0.585 20 15
13 Detroit -2 0.622 9-3 0.627 0.557 18 12
14 Kansas City +1 0.609 8-5 0.596 0.546 18 13
15 Windy City -1 0.601 7-6 0.564 0.598 18 13
16 Boston 0.582 5-9 0.526 0.577 20 14
17 Madison 0.573 3-9 0.482 0.594 17 12
18 Atlanta 0.569 12-4 0.597 0.496 22 16
19 Jet City +2 0.538 6-4 0.545 0.501 11 10
20 Cincinnati 0.536 9-4 0.568 0.516 18 13
21 Minnesota -2 0.532 7-3 0.526 0.480 16 10
22 Brewcity 0.527 8-5 0.565 0.483 18 13
23 Omaha 0.524 7-4 0.545 0.471 12 11
24 Montreal +1 0.524 11-5 0.578 0.447 20 16
25 Naptown +1 0.520 11-5 0.534 0.462 19 16
26 Nashville -2 0.519 11-5 0.564 0.490 22 16
27 Maine 0.515 3-3 0.552 0.441 7 6
28 Tampa Bay 0.506 7-11 0.460 0.494 24 18
29 Dallas 0.504 13-10 0.544 0.497 27 23
30 Carolina 0.503 6-9 0.459 0.522 21 15
31 North Star 0.486 6-5 0.490 0.492 16 11
32 Arch Rival 0.484 4-12 0.430 0.524 21 16
33 Houston 0.482 5-9 0.472 0.506 19 14
34 No Coast 0.476 8-3 0.543 0.451 16 11
35 Pikes Peak 0.464 6-6 0.428 0.404 16 12
36 Tucson 0.457 6-6 0.461 0.523 16 12
37 Duke City +1 0.443 4-7 0.457 0.536 16 11
38 Grand Raggidy +2 0.435 4-3 0.424 0.450 12 7
39 Sacred City -2 0.433 4-5 0.448 0.509 11 9
40 Ohio +1 0.427 4-5 0.420 0.441 11 9
41 DC +1 0.425 5-10 0.407 0.479 19 15
42 Providence -3 0.422 4-9 0.440 0.523 18 13
43 Fort Wayne 0.417 4-4 0.465 0.397 10 8
44 Salt City 0.403 3-3 0.439 0.332 7 6
45 Connecticut 0.395 2-5 0.397 0.426 12 7
46 Dutchland +2 0.393 7-7 0.445 0.411 16 14
47 Slaughter County -1 0.391 1-2 0.413 0.491 3 3
48 Lava City -1 0.384 1-3 0.412 0.452 5 4
49 Emerald City 0.368 2-1 0.407 0.401 3 3
50 Arizona 0.366 5-3 0.448 0.367 8 8
51 Bleeding Heartland 0.365 2-5 0.353 0.430 9 7
52 Hard Knox 0.364 7-6 0.424 0.423 18 13
53 Bellingham 0.362 0-3 0.432 0.562 3 3
54 Memphis 0.353 4-8 0.407 0.432 18 12
55 Northwest Arkansas 0.349 2-3 0.391 0.451 7 5
56 Dominion 0.348 2-3 0.399 0.456 10 5
57 Angel City 0.345 0-3 0.349 0.539 8 3
58 Tallahassee 0.338 1-4 0.332 0.481 6 5
59 Green Country 0.333 4-3 0.475 0.361 9 7
60 Sioux Falls 0.331 0-6 0.383 0.515 8 6
61 Assassination City 0.319 2-7 0.311 0.381 10 9
62 Big Easy 0.313 2-4 0.356 0.357 7 6
63 Central Coast 0.306 2-2 0.411 0.351 4 4
64 Oklahoma 0.284 1-3 0.308 0.378 6 4
65 Burning River 0.282 0-3 0.357 0.494 8 3
66 Dixie +2 0.265 2-7 0.296 0.402 12 9
67 Pacific 0.250 1-5 0.271 0.427 7 6
68 Suburbia -2 0.248 2-5 0.346 0.395 8 7
69 Long Island 0.197 0-1 0.280 0.289 2 1
70 Sin City 0.184 0-5 0.216 0.376 5 5
71 River City 0.177 1-4 0.251 0.396 6 5
72 FoCo +1 0.167 0-3 0.265 0.498 3 3
73 Hammer City -1 0.167 0-7 0.225 0.449 9 7
74 West Texas 0.124 0-2 0.221 0.450 5 2
75 Alamo City 0.109 0-2 0.170 0.391 3 2
76 Derby City 0.094 0-4 0.229 0.463 4 4
77 Harrisburg Area 0.081 0-5 0.199 0.416 5 5
78 Gem City 0.060 0-3 0.181 0.283 4 3
*Unofficial Team
at 9:33 AM in

8 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 8, 2010 at 3:04 PM

    Nashville 8 spots below Atlanta who they thrashed at Regionals.... What has Derbytron been smoking.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 8, 2010 at 4:34 PM

    It's math, baby.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 9, 2010 at 11:05 AM

    Well, the math is obviously flawed (the formulas used) because to have team A, that beat team B TWICE in the past twelve month, ranked 8 spots below them demonstrates that flaw. One or two spots, ok, slight problem, eight spots, something is weighted WAY wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  4. DerbytronNovember 9, 2010 at 11:51 AM

    To say that the math is obviously flawed because of one team's ranking is flawed logic.

    Nashville went through a rough stretch where they played very poorly (compared to the rest of their season). Their two games with Atlanta were before and after that stretch. Atlanta played pretty consistently all season. You can definitely argue that Nashville is the better team right now but to mathematically prove that, all of Nashville's games during that rough stretch are going to have to be thrown in the trash. Obviously, you can argue that maybe that should be the case, but then I'm humanly throwing certain games away that I personally think aren't important anymore which isn't the point of these rankings. The point of these is to take the human element out of it.

    You should definitely know that I'm going to update the formula in the offseason to better adjust for certain things and that's probably something I'll look at.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 10, 2010 at 10:00 AM

    I think one problem is how far back you are looking. To base Atlanta's ranking off 22 games means you are going back well into the 2009 season. In derby world (or really any sports world) that's WAY too long. The Nashville case you mention is a prime example. They start really strong (in 2010). They lose their #2 jammer to season ending knee injury, and they lose 3 starting blockers to other leagues. They then go through a rough patch while B team players get up to speed (that team isn't the team they started they season with). Then as those players come on they rebound (that team isn't the team decimated by losing skaters). It's a bit of a stretch to think results 4 or 5 months old have much bearing on a teams performance today. To think results 16 or 18 months old are any reflection on their current strength pretty much makes zero sense.

    ReplyDelete
  6. DerbytronNovember 10, 2010 at 11:27 AM

    Are you aware of how far Flat Track Stats is looking back?

    I know exactly what you're talking about and that's one of the reasons I came up with this rankings system. What you're not realizing is how these ratings are being calculated. I recommend reading the methodology. The games in 2009 are only July and after so every rating on here is less than a year and a half old. Also, the games in 2009 are weighted so little that they account for barely more than nothing for teams who have played many games in 2010 (the reason for using games from 2009 is to be able to rate teams at the beginning of the season when no one has played anybody and for teams that don't play very many games during the entire season). Also, the last 3 games for each team are weighted 167% heavier than games played earlier in the season.

    So, there is definitely an emphasis on the idea of "what have you done lately." Maybe it's not enough, that's a fair assessment.

    But, that Nashville rough patch ended at the end of August against Steel City. That's still pretty damn recent, isn't it? Less than 3 months and 5 games ago.

    It sounds to me like you're saying that only games played within the last 2 months or so should be counted. If that's the case, I think you need to pay a little more attention to how often teams outside the top 25 are playing (and even some teams in the top 25). If I was only ranking teams based on the last 2 months, #1 I'd only being ranking probably half of the teams I am now because there'd be almost no data and #2 the rankings would make absolutely no sense because they'd be based on almost no data.

    ReplyDelete
  7. DerbytronNovember 10, 2010 at 11:52 AM

    Okay, so I just did a test where I cleared out all the data from before September.

    That means that there are only 39 teams left that have enough games to be ranked and 9 of those teams are unofficial (having played less than 4 games). So, less than 1/3 of all WFTDA teams would be officially ranked.

    The top 3 is exactly the same and the rest of the top 10 doesn't look super different with the exception of Texas being ranked 4 spots lower. You will be happy to know that Nashville is ranked #20 and Atlanta is #22.

    Not to make excuses because I do want every team to be ranked exactly perfect but the Derbytron did pick correctly 11/12 games at the WFTDA Championship and is pretty much in a dead heat with DNN's Power Rankings at 83.2% in Top 25 games vs. their 83.0% accuracy.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Bitches BruzeNovember 16, 2010 at 3:30 PM

    So San Diego is in but Pioneer Valley/Western Mass Destruction who has pummeled the likes of New Hampshire and Hudson Valley doesn't make the list?

    For shame. Like San Diego being banned for not skating enough flat track, we're banned because we have a league that has a mens team.

    ReplyDelete

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