If you look at the latest rankings, you might notice a few teams moved dramatically up or down despite the fact that they didn't play a game. Well, here's the thing. After plugging in the games from this weekend, I noticed a problem that somehow didn't jump out at me in all my testing in the offseason or even last season. Essentially, what was happening before was that games between two teams rated within .16 of each other were given the maximum weight they could. The problem with this is that there is a dramatic difference that happens on the edge of that range. So, for instance, after getting a couple wins this weekend, Dallas moved up within .16 of Texas which meant the blowouts at the hands of Texas which were weighted very low last week were suddenly at maximum weight this week which plummeted them in the rankings. I have fixed this by staggering the weight by rating proximity so now max-weight is given to games with two teams rated within .08 and lesser out to .16.
Surprisingly, after all the games played this weekend and the changes in the formula, there were no changes in the Top 9, not that it really matters at this point. Unfortunately, there aren't too many games scheduled for the rest of March that will affect the Top 15 very much. The action does pick up in April, though, with four games between current Top 10 teams.
3.09.2010
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If Oly Rollers had only played two bouts in 2009, they would have JUST qualified for regionals, not blasted their way through them and nationals with nothing but wins.
ReplyDeletePerhaps you're missing some bouts?