June 8 Analysis - Ouch Edition

Three incorrect predictions this weekend makes the Derbytron Rankings a little sore. Dallas (#21, 5-1) traveled to Duke City (#16, 2-2) and lost 137-86 to the Munecas Muertas. Another roadtrip for a higher ranked team saw Omaha (#49-1-4) go down to Rocky Mountain (#38, 1-3) 187-14. And finally, Steel City (#9, 7-1) drove to Harrisburg Area (#20, 3-2) for a high scoring close loss 178-175. More on what these missed predictions mean later in the post.

Gotham (#1, 3-0) extended its insane winning streak to 15 games after a 185-31 blowout win over Carolina (#31, 0-3) at Dorton Arena in Raleigh, NC. Gotham played some killer defense as Carolina was unable to get on the board in the first seven minutes. After two Carolina points, Gotham scored 68 straight points before Holly Wanna Crackya became lead jammer and scored four points for Carolina making it 83-6 but it continued in Gotham's direction from there. Is there any doubt that Gotham is the clear-cut #1?

In a Top 25 matchup, Detroit (#19, 3-1) faced Rat City (#10, 3-1) in Seattle and came up short 135-101. The ladies from the Motor City kept it close, 104-96, with just under 10 minutes remaining before Rat City went on a 31-5 run to end the game. This win was the third in a trend that saw West teams winning in inter-regional matchups this weekend (Duke over Dallas, Rocky over Omaha, Rat over Detroit) once again showing how stacked this region is.

Hard Knox (#40, 1-1) played their second WFTDA game and won 100-64 over Dixie (#59, 0-3) to debut in the Derbytron Rankings at #40. Kansas City (#11, 3-0) dominated Northwest Arkansas (#45, 1-2) 215-63. Oklahoma (#60, 1-3) dropped their second straight loss in two weeks to a Texas team 150-61 at West Texas (#30, 2-2) and Angel City (#26, 3-1) defeated Sin City (#62, 0-2) 228-43.

So, the easy answer as to why the Derbytron Rankings were so wrong in the three incorrect predictions this week could simply be "not enough data" as Duke City is now ranked above Dallas and Rocky Mountain is now ranked above Omaha. A 3-point win for Harrisburg Area over Steel City is definitely something to be proud of but it doesn't necessarily prove they're a better team. However, they should at least be ranked a little closer as there is still 10 teams between them. I am still seeing teams like Carolina and Rocky Mountain ranked too low and North Star ranked too high. So, ultimately, I have to find what these teams have in common as I believe 90% of the teams in the rankings are in the right place +/- a few spots. What the issue seems to be is teams not getting enough credit when they play top teams and getting too much credit when they play low rated teams (no matter the outcome of the game). I think the problem comes from how the strength of schedule interacts with what happened in the game. The vacuum game rating is a scale from 0-1, the average vacuum rating of the opposing team is a scale from 0-1, but the opposing team's rating with their strength of schedule implemented is essentially a scale from .25-.75. I think the difference in scales is what is causing the problem. There just isn't enough difference between Gotham and Sin City. I am going to experiment this week and try to fix this problem and hopefully will release new rankings before next weekend.

Rankings Update - June 8, 2009

	Team		Rating	2009 Record	Vacuum Rating	SOS	Total Games	2009 Games
1	Gotham		0.831	3-0	0.960	0.631	9	3
2	Windy City		0.724	2-0	0.805	0.614	8	2
3	Texas		0.718	3-0	0.876	0.508	10	3
4	Denver		0.696	4-1	0.804	0.549	9	5
5	Philly		0.682	2-0	0.757	0.624	8	2
6	Charm City	+2	0.671	7-1	0.775	0.561	11	8
7	North Star	-1	0.664	3-0	0.895	0.423	3	3
8	Oly	+2	0.648	4-0	0.748	0.550	4	4
9	Steel City	-1	0.642	7-1	0.858	0.415	9	8
10	Rat City	+1	0.641	3-1	0.657	0.639	8	4
11	Kansas City	+4	0.625	3-0	0.840	0.412	7	3
12	Bay Area		0.618	1-1	0.574	0.596	7	2
13	Rose City	+1	0.604	1-1	0.514	0.650	6	2
14	Madison	-7*	0.599	1-0	0.581	0.558	5	1
15	Houston	+2	0.580	2-0	0.736	0.447	6	2
16	Duke City	+10	0.576	2-2	0.505	0.612	9	4
17	Cincinnati	+3	0.550	4-1	0.679	0.440	9	5
18	Boston	+1	0.548	2-3	0.492	0.580	9	5
19	Detroit	-3	0.546	2-2	0.529	0.576	7	4
20	Harrisburg Area	+2	0.541	3-2	0.484	0.535	8	5
21	Dallas	-8*	0.540	5-1	0.674	0.429	9	6
22	Minnesota	-4	0.527	1-0	0.601	0.478	6	1
23	Sacred City	+2	0.520	3-0	0.764	0.382	6	3
24	Atlanta	-3*	0.520	3-5	0.456	0.521	9	8
25	Providence	+2	0.503	2-1	0.447	0.554	7	3
26	Angel City	+4	0.502	3-1	0.674	0.353	7	4
27	Fort Wayne	-3	0.502	4-2	0.552	0.435	8	6
28	Nashville		0.500	3-1	0.696	0.359	6	4
29	Sioux Falls	-6	0.496	2-2	0.581	0.428	4	4
30	West Texas	+2	0.492	2-2	0.502	0.464	7	4
31	Carolina	+4*	0.491	0-3	0.255	0.705	9	3
32	Ohio	-3	0.486	3-2	0.281	0.613	9	5
33	Pikes Peak		0.480	3-3	0.451	0.491	10	6
34	Naptown	-3	0.466	3-2	0.544	0.399	8	5
35	Tucson	+1	0.464	1-1	0.404	0.520	6	2
36	Arch Rival	-2	0.452	2-3	0.362	0.531	7	5
37	Burning River		0.439	0-2	0.342	0.520	6	2
38	Rocky Mountain	+8	0.426	1-3	0.376	0.512	8	4
39	Memphis		0.416	1-1	0.502	0.378	3	2
40	Hard Knox	UR	0.413	1-1	0.463	0.408	2	2
41	Tampa Bay	-3	0.405	0-2	0.253	0.488	6	2
42	Maine	-2	0.399	2-3	0.389	0.485	7	5
43	Grand Raggidy	-1	0.389	1-4	0.241	0.531	11	5
44	DC	-1	0.386	2-1	0.479	0.376	6	3
45	Northwest Arkansas	-4	0.371	1-2	0.291	0.453	7	3
46	Assassination City	-2	0.364	2-2	0.380	0.381	6	4
47	Salt City		0.361	0-0	0.291	0.398	5	0
48	Brewcity		0.337	0-1	0.256	0.478	6	1
49	Omaha	-4	0.325	1-4	0.233	0.443	6	5
50	Long Island	-1	0.321	0-1	0.000	0.589	3	1
51	Slaughter County		0.312	0-2	0.017	0.557	2	2
52	Dutchland	-2	0.308	0-3	0.147	0.428	3	3
53	Alamo City	+2	0.301	0-2	0.271	0.363	6	2
54	Connecticut	-2	0.294	0-2	0.086	0.470	5	2
55	Big Easy	-1	0.285	0-4	0.131	0.422	7	4
56	No Coast	-3	0.282	0-4	0.074	0.487	7	4
57	Arizona	+2	0.264	1-3	0.180	0.401	6	4
58	Green Country	-2	0.256	1-4	0.180	0.369	8	5
59	Dixie	-1	0.247	0-3	0.031	0.431	6	3
60	Oklahoma	-3	0.247	1-3	0.068	0.469	6	4
61	Dominion	-1	0.230	0-2	0.073	0.427	7	2
62	Sin City	-1	0.202	0-2	0.117	0.321	4	2
	*Unofficial Team
	*Added Carolina’s 131-54 win over Madison from 12/6/08
	*Added Dallas’s 115-108 win over Atlanta from 2/7/09

June 6-7 Results

2009		Away Team				Home Team			Accuracy
6/7	12	Steel City	175		28	Harrisburg Area	178		28/12
6/6	2	Gotham	185		10	Carolina	31		2/10
	52	Dixie	64			Hard Knox	100		Unofficial
	17	Dallas	86		14	Duke City	137		14/17
	21	Kansas City	215		36	Northwest Arkansas	63		21/36
	39	Omaha	14		38	Rocky Mountain	187		38/39
	13	Detroit	101		6	Rat City	135		6/13
	62	Oklahoma	61		25	West Texas	150		25/62
	29	Angel City	228		58	Sin City	43		Unofficial